Date published: April 1, 2010
Journal code: MOB
Cary, North Carolina-based Local Market Monitor released its first-quarter 20iO Home Price Forecast, and the report includes lists of both the expected best- and worst-performing markets in two categories: large- and smallpopulation markets. Small markets are those with populations of less than 600,000. The forecast predicts local market behavior for well over 300 local U.S. markets over the next 12 months.
Surprisingly, California fared well in the home-price outlook for the coming year.
For best-performing small markets, a broad range of states was represented on the list of places expected to perform well in terms of home-price movement. California, Texas and Indiana all had two housing markets on the list of bestperforming small markets. Merced and Santa Rosa-Petaluma were CaIifornia's representatives, while Odessa and Lubbock, Texas, also made the list. Indiana contributed two solid housing markets: Bloomington and Terre Haute.
Rounding out the list of top- 15 best-performing small markets were Anniston-Oxford, AL; Clarksville, TN-KY; Dubuque, IA; Fort Smith, AR-OK; Fort Walton Beach-Crestview-Destin, FL; Grand Forks, ND-MN; Kennewick-PascoRichland, WA; Lake Charles, LA; and Utica-Rome, NY.
The large markets expected to see home prices perform the best included four markets in California, according to Local Market Monitor. Those included Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Oxnard-Thousand Oaks- Ventura, Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine and Stockton. Three New York state markets also made this list: Buffalo-Niagara Falls, Rochester and Syracuse.
A press release announcing the new forecast stated, "As this list [of large markets, best-performing| indicates, many California markets are well past the worst. Many California markets have continuously held a place in the 'worst expected performance' lists throughout the past year. Much of this is due to the long-term effects of speculative buying, including the repercussions of inflated housing construction on the local job market and investor portfolios."
"Over the next year, we expect either flat or moderately increasing home prices in many California markets, especially Southern California," said Ingo Winzer, president and founder of Local Market Monitor. Winzer added, "In fact, overall, we forecast only a 3.7 percent drop in the average U.S. home price in the next 12 months, and even that might be too pessimistic."
Rounding out the list of large markets with the best-expected price performance were Baton Rouge, LA; McAllen-EdinburgMission, TX; Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL; Tulsa, OK; and Was hingt on- ArlingtonAlexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV.
On the list of anticipated worst-performing large markets, Washington state had three markets: Seattle-Bellevue-Everett; Tacoma; and Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton (OR-WA). Florida also had three markets on the large-market, poor performance list: Jacksonville; OrlandoKissimmee; and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.
As for small markets with the worst expected price performance this year: Oregon led the way with the most markets. Bend, Medford and Salem all made it on the list. Arizona had two markets on this list, Flagstaff and Yuma, while California had none of its housing markets on the poor-performer, smallmarket list. Utah had two housing markets on the list of small markets with expected poor price performance: Provo-Orem and St. George.